Dolarul contestat

acelasi articol scris sub mai multe forme de acelasi om,de nu sti

acelasi articol scris sub mai multe forme de acelasi om,de nu stiu cate ori.....hai sa treaca toata lumea pe euro , al cui euro?! al Greciei , Portugaliei, Spaniei , Italiei , Irlandei , Romaniei...
Poate trecem pe ruble sau pe Yuan (moneda unui regim comunist,ca tare nostalgic dupa vremurile comuniste este domnul Serbanescu)
nu e vorba numai de economia USA cand vorbim de dolari oameni buni. conteaza stabilitatea unei tari , armata , democratia .....un intreg sistem.

Pare probabil scenariul descris, doar ca se va intinde pe minim 2

Pare probabil scenariul descris, doar ca se va intinde pe minim 20 de ani. Dolarul nu cred ca va fi inlocuit cu Rubla sau Yuan (sic - mirc) ci cu o moneda care sa fie reprezentativa pentru un organism, gen euro. Astfel intrebarea reala este: Cand si cum statele asiatice vor infiinta o comunitate economica si de ce nu, politica? China achizitioneaza si castiga tot mai mult teren in aproape orice tine de manufactura si export. Iar SUA achizitioneaza in acelasi ritm ...obscuritate, incat ma intreb daca nu cumva alegerea unui presedinte de culoare, in spiritul democratiei, a fost un act mai degraba conjunctural. Una peste alta, ii adresez lui Mirc urmatorul scenariu: SUA detine o armata superioara finantata de un buget virtual nelimitat; totusi in fiecare conflict major a obtinut acasa proteste (ergo instabilitate, prin demiterea unor actori importanti) si in campul bataliei infrangeri. Ce include sistemul pe care se bazeaza stabilitatea unei tari?

Haide, domnule mirc, Ilie Serbanescu e nostalgic dupa comunism pe

Haide, domnule mirc, Ilie Serbanescu e nostalgic dupa comunism pentru ca sustine, printre randuri, ca ne apropriem de sfarsitul dolarului ca moneda de schimb internationala.

Ia studiati datoria externa (publica si privata) a SUA incepand din 1980 incoace. Se sparie gandul, datoria a crescut apropape exponential, acum e la 300% din PIB-ul SUA!!! (teoretic pentru fiecare familie americana revine undeva peste 700.000 de usd de platit in contul acestei datorii). Din pacate asta e adevarul, SUA traieste pe datorie mult peste posibilitati doar prin tiparire de dolari. Asta tot se sparge pana la urma. Si nu o spun cu bucurie, ca o sa ne ia dracu pe toti in vartejul urias ce se va crea.

Dar nu vad cale de intoarcere. Poate doar daca se pune economia americana pe roti si incepe sa exporte in draci si incepe bugetul american sa aiba excedent de 10% pe an si altele si altele.. Astea sunt vise, nu se mai poate face nimic. SUA si-a batut joc in ultimii 30-40 de ani de tot avansul tehnologic si de business pe care il aveau in fata lumii, castigat cu o munca asidua de mai bine de 100 de ani.. Au dat economia reala pe speculatiile smecherilor alora din Wall Street.

Si cu ce sa-l inlocuiasca , cu rubla sau cu yenul ? Deocamdata PI

Si cu ce sa-l inlocuiasca , cu rubla sau cu yenul ? Deocamdata PIBul SUA este cat pibul chinei si rusiei inmultit cu zece iar 83 de milioane de germani produc tot atat cat 1,3 miliarde de chinezi .Au prins si ei putina murdarie la fund si cred ca e miere . Tehnologia de ultima ora si cercetatea vor decide in continuare cine va fi nomber one .Si deocamdata ptr rusi si chinezi , trebuie sa mai curga multa apa pe volga respectiv pe raul galben ptr a ajunge unde este america dpdv tehnologic. Nu mai vorbim de germania , japonia , franta si anglia .Cu ce costuri au obtinut chinezii si cu rusii ceea ce au obtinut ??????

Respect foarte mult abordarea unor teme relevante, pe care masa s

Respect foarte mult abordarea unor teme relevante, pe care masa superficiala a presei orientate dupa subiecte de o stralucire derizorie le ignora; apreciez tratarea pertinenta a subiectelor si directetea afirmatiilor. Cred ca acestea reprezinta, mai mult decat marca unui economist de rasa, marca unui economist adevarat. Si este mare nevoie de asa ceva in spatiul public romanesc, diletant, interesat si..., dupa cum spuneam, derizoriu.

Un comentariu trist dar adevarat in sensul ca jocurile sunt facut

Un comentariu trist dar adevarat in sensul ca jocurile sunt facute de cateva state, care se bat pe suprematie. Restul statelor lumii sunt pe post de pioni sau cobai! In anii '90 dupa "pietele" Tien an Men si Casa alba de la Moscova, PUTINi credeau in pasarile Pheonix de la Beijing si Moscova. Si totusi iata ca astazi PIB-ul Chinei este de 4 ori mai mare decat cel al Germaniei sau al Frantei sau al Marii Britanii !!!! (tari occidentale super tehnologizate dar care au fost intrecute inclusiv de India !!! (PIB = $3.548 trillion) (cf. CIA pt. 2009 se estimeaza pt. China $8.767 trillion , USA = $14.25 trillion, EU = $14.52 trillion si World = $70.21 trillion) - asta nu ca sa raspund unui comentariu anterior, ridicol si imbecil, ci doar pentru o corecta informare a eventualilor cititori. Faptul ca deja China marsaluieste spre locul 1 mondial, nu mai e un secret pentru nimeni (poate doar pentru cei prost informati sau rauvoitori) si implicit, multe economii "moderne si tehnologizate" sunt captive acum si dependente de produsele chinezesti (sau de utilitatile si materiile prime din Rusia)si daca vezi toate astea nu inseamna ca esti nostalgic dupa vremurile comuniste! Ca sa intelegi China de azi trebuie sa vezi Shanghai-ul, un oras cu autostrazi supendate in dreptul etajului 5 al blocurilor de peste 30 de etaje, condus de un "biet" ... mandarin, de fapt de un sistem care a pus mai presus de individ - comunitatea !

Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- For all the concern over the $1.6 trillion

Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- For all the concern over the $1.6 trillion U.S. budget deficit and record debt load, the dollar is as valuable now as 35 years ago.

Measured against a basket of currencies from the Group of 10 nations proportioned by how they trade against each other, the greenback is up about 3 percent since 1975, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes. That was four years after the Bretton Woods agreement, set up in 1944 to link currencies to the price of gold, collapsed. The U.K. pound has dropped 34 percent and the Canadian dollar has fallen 6 percent.

The U.S. dollar gained 6 percent since November after losing 12 percent in the first 11 months of 2009 as measured by the Bloomberg index. Barclays Capital and Morgan Stanley say the U.S. will grow faster than the rest of the developed world this year and 2011. At the same time, Europe faces worsening finances in Greece, Spain and Portugal, Japana??s economy is struggling and concerns about valuations in emerging markets are increasing.

a??To quote Mark Twain, the reports of the dollara??s demise have been greatly exaggerated,a?? said Win Thin, a senior currency strategist in New York at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., which manages about $40 billion in assets.

Rising Demand

Nowhere is that more evident than in the market for U.S. Treasuries. The amount of Americaa??s government debt held by investors outside the U.S. rose 17 percent to $3.6 trillion in 2009 through November, according to the Treasury Department.

Purchases may continue to rise as investors seek refuge from growing sovereign credit risk in the euro area. The dollar a??will benefit from relative liquidity of the U.S. Treasury markets,a?? Barclays Capital currency strategists led by David Woo in London said in a Feb. 5 report.

Barclays Capital economists said in a report the same day that U.S. gross domestic product may grow 3.6 percent this year, versus 2.5 percent for the developed world, and 3.1 percent in 2011, compared with 2.6 percent elsewhere. Japana??s GDP may expand 1.9 percent this year, and the euro zone 1.3 percent, they said.

A day earlier, strategists at New York-based Morgan Stanley boosted their dollar forecast, saying it will strengthen to $1.24 per euro by year-end from its previous estimate of $1.32. It traded at $1.3676 as of 6:46 a.m. in New York today. The firm sees the U.S. currency gaining to 109 yen from 89.42 today, and rallying to $1.49 to the pound from $1.5578

Reserve Currency

Investors and traders predicted last year the dollar would lose its position as the worlda??s reserve currency, which means ita??s the first place central banks look to park their cash.

a??With all the concerns about the problems with the U.S. financial system last year, the banking sector in the euro zone looked a bit more stable,a?? said Robert Sinche, chief strategist at Lily Pond Capital Management LLC in New York. a??That created a sense of the euro as an alternative to the dollar.a??

Central banks that disclose breakdowns of their reserves bought a record $60 billion worth of euros in 2009a??s second quarter, more than half of their new cash in the period, based on International Monetary Fund data adjusted for exchange-rate changes using methodology developed by Barclays Capital.

They then reversed course, putting 15 percent of new reserves, or $17.8 billion, into euros in the third quarter, the smallest share of any period in which their reserves grew since early 2008. Central banks put 45 percent, or $52 billion, into dollars, up from 36 percent.

Rally by Default

Rather than a referendum on the U.S., the dollar may be rallying by default. Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the credit crisis, said on Feb. 4 that the greenback may weaken for the next three years.

Moodya??s Investors Service said last week the U.S. governmenta??s Aaa bond rating will come under pressure unless additional measures are taken to reduce budget deficits projected for the next decade. The ratio of government debt to GDP and revenue increased a??sharplya?? during the seizure in credit markets and recession, Moodya??s said.

a??If the current upward trend in government debt were to continue and become irreversible, the rating could come under downward pressure,a?? said analysts led by Steven Hess, a senior credit officer at Moodya??s in New York.

The Obama administrationa??s plan to offset spending by more than $1.2 trillion over 10 years showed larger deficits and higher debt levels than in the original budget, Moodya??s said. The ratio of debt to GDP in the U.S. will continue to expand, reaching 76.5 percent in 2019 compared with an earlier forecast of 70.1 percent, Moodya??s said.

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said in an ABC News interview broadcast yesterday the U.S. isna??t in danger of losing its Aaa rating.

a??Absolutely not,a?? Geithner said, when asked whether a downgrade is a concern. a??That will never happen to this country.a??

a??A Better Beta??

The U.S. Office of Management & Budget said Americaa??s budget deficit will fall each year through 2014, to $706 billion from $1.56 trillion in 2010, as borrowing needs drop to $814 billion from $1.75 trillion.

a??Under stress, people trust the U.S. to do the right thing,a?? said Sebastien Galy, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York. a??The U.S. is a better bet.a??

A global reserve currency must provide investors with the ability to invest, which requires liquid markets, and few capital controls, according to investors. Chinaa??s yuan cana??t replace the dollar because it isna??t fully convertible and doesna??t float freely. The euro region and the markets for commodity currencies, such as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar, dona??t have enough trading to absorb the amount of cash the reserve banks hold.

a??No Alternativea??

a??There is no alternative to the dollar, so ita??s status as a reserve currency cana??t be under threat,a?? said Adam Boyton, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in New York.

The dollara??s preeminence will remain intact, as it continues to be the most widely used currency in business and finance worldwide, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in a report released Jan. 5. Some $580 billion in banknotes, or 65 percent of all bills in circulation, were held outside the U.S. as of March 2009, according to Fed data.

The greenback has an 86 percent share of the foreign- exchange market, more than twice the euroa??s 37 percent. Its share of the international debt market is 39 percent.

a??The international role of the dollar remains substantial a decade after the introduction of the euro, and despite changes in the value of the dollar and the financial turmoil that began in 2007,a?? Linda Goldberg, a vice president at the New York Fed, wrote in the report.

Relative Deficits

While the Congressional Budget Office expects Americaa??s debt to reach 65 percent of GDP in 2010, that would still be below the 77 percent of GDP the European Commission expects for Germany, the U.K.a??s 80 percent and Japana??s 180 percent.

a??I would want to stay away from the euro, the euro zone and some of the emerging European currencies,a?? Michael Gomez, the co-head of emerging markets at Pacific Investment Management Co., said on Feb. 4 at a conference in Moscow. The Newport Beach, California-based firm manages the worlda??s biggest bond fund.